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Probability Basics

Probability measures how likely an uncertain outcome is, on a scale from 0 to 1. Impossible events have probability 0 and the certain event has probability 1; in general these values mean almost never/almost surely, not necessarily an empty/full event.

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Conditional Probability and Bayes Theorem

New information changes probabilities. Knowing that a test came back positive, that a packet arrived late, or that the first card drawn was an ace, we should update how likely the other events are. Conditional probability is the rule for that update.

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